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05-09-2022 Conf. Mtg. COUNCIL CONFERENCE MEETING May 09, 2022 5:00 PM Fridley Civic Center, 7071 University Avenue N.E. AGENDA 1.2021 Performance Measurement Program 2.2023 Budget Outlook & Objectives The City of Fridley will not discriminate against or harass anyone in the admission or access to, or treatment, or employment in its services, program, or activities because of race, color, creed, religion, national origin, sex, disability, age, marital status, sexual orientation or status with regard to public assistance. Upon request, accommodation will Hearing impaired persons who need any interpreter or other persons with disabilities who require auxiliary aids should contact Roberta Collins at (763) 572-3500. (TTD/763-572-3534). 2 Jufn!2/ AGENDA REPORT Meeting Date:May 9, 2022 Meeting Type:City CouncilConference Meeting Submitted By:Melisa Moore, City Clerk Brooke Hall, Communications Specialist Title 2021Performance Measurement Program Background In 2019, the City of Fridley (City), under the general direction of the City Manager, formed the Process Management (PMT) to improve the efficiency and efficacy of City programs and services. The PMT consists of staff from each department, trained in continuous improvement, performance measurement and problem solving, among other areas. The PMT consists of twocommittees: 1) Process Improvement (Process); and 2) Performance Measurement (Performance). The Process Committee(s)seeks to improve businesses processes by reducing waste and enhancing quality. The Performance Committee developeda set of measures based on guidance from the Minnesota Local Performance Measurement Program (Program) offered by the Office of the State Auditor (OSA) in conjunction with the Council on Local Results and Innovation. By formally reporting on at least 10 of the 29 performance measures identified by the Program to the OSA, the City may receive two benefits: 1) a per capita reimbursement of $0.14; and 2) an exemption from property tax levy limit ifthey are in effect. Toparticipate in the Program, the City Council must adopt the minimum number of performance measures, report them at least annually to residents and submit a document detailing the actual results. Based on those criteria, the PMT drafted the 2021Performance Measures Report (attached), which outlines 18performance measures.In addition to the benefits of the Program, the City will use the report to inform policy decisions, such as budget recommendations, and to gauge the success of City programs and services. Attachments and Other Resources Draft2021Performance Measurement Report Vision Statement We believe Fridley will be a safe, vibrant, friendlyand stable home for families and businesses. 3 Jufn!2/ 2021 Performance Measures Report 4 Jufn!2/ City of Fridley | 2021 Performance Measurement Report In summer 2019, the City of Fridley Process Management Team was formed with representatives from every department. After completing an in-depth analysis of customer service standards at the Fridley Civic Campus, the team was separated into two subcommittees: Process Improvement and Performance Measurement. The Process Improvement Subcommittee was tasked with reviewing applications from departments was assigned with developing a report on the required measures for the State of Minnesota Performance Measurement Program through the Council on Local Results and Innovation (CLRI). The Performance Measurement Committee coordinated with City departments to report on 18 measures in the report. The measures were divided into four categories: General, Police, Fire and Public Works (Streets, Water and Sanitary Sewer). Within the report, there is a full overview of the elected performance measures data, as well as individual data sets and descriptions of the measurements. Descriptions include what data is being measured, why the data is important, and what the results mean for the City of Fridley. For the 2021 report, the Process Management Team consisted of the following members: Performance Measurement SubcommitteeProcess Improvement Subcommittee Brooke Hall, ChairBeth Kondrick, Chair Roberta CollinsMike Grundman Karen FischerPatrick Maghrak Melissa MooreJessica Nelson-Roehl Stacy StrombergMikey Oman 5 2 City of Fridley Standard Performance Measures Jufn!2/ For the Year Ended December 31, 2021 General 20172018201920202021 Percentage Change in Taxable 6.60%12.80%6.37%7.64%6.29% Market Value Nuisance Code Enforcement 26.1249.3558.7233.8635.18 Cases per 1,000 population Bond RatingAa2Aa2Aa2Aa2Aa2W Not selected Not selected Not selected Not selected for Not selected Accuracy of Post Election Audit for auditfor auditfor auditauditfor audit Feeling Safe in the CityN/AN/AN/A98%N/A Police Services Part I Crime Rates1,1181,1001,1481,3291,312 Part II Crime Rates1,4121,4611,1631,007842 Part I Crime Clearance Rates25%26%28%24%32% Part II Crime Clearance Rates50%52%52%42%50% Average Police Response Time3:27 Minutes3:12 Minutes3:33 Minutes3:53 Minutes5:39 Minutes Fire & EMS Services Insurance Industry Rating of Class 3Class 3Class 3Class 3Class 3 Fire Services Average Fire Response Time5:00 Minutes6:00 Minutes5:47 Minutes6:07 Minutes6:07 Minutes Fire Calls Per 1,000 Population 128919411495 Number of Fires with Losses 3545443940 Resulting in Investigation Streets Average City Street Pavement 7.086.926.506.846.80 Condition Rating Expenditures for Road Rehabilitation per Paved Lane $150,803N/A$194,894$213,794$122,515 Mile Rehabilitated Percentage of All Jurisdiction Lane Miles Rehabilitated in a 1.68%0%0.51%3.148%2.580% Year Water Operating Cost per 1,000,000 Gallons of Water Pumped/$1,741$1,846$1,957$1,868$1,886 Produced Sanitary Sewer Number of Sewer Blockages on City System per 100 .036.060.048.036.012 6 3 Connections Jufn!2/ General: Market Value, Code Enforcement, Bond Rating, Elections Taxable Property Market 20172018201920202021 Value Percentage Change6.60%12.80%6.37%7.64%6.29% Taxable Market Value2,263,260,4002,411,702,930 2,720,564,453 2,945,538,0613,240,926,104 Percent Change in the Taxable Market Value What is it? As a local taxing jurisdiction, property taxes are the principal funding source for the City and its operations. For some real property, a portion of its market value may be excluded from taxation, such as the Homestead Market Value Exclusion. Once those a taxing jurisdiction applies those exclusion, the market value becomes the Taxable Market Value (TMV). Why does it matter? The City uses the TMV to help determine the tax liability for each property within its jurisdiction. Usually, when the TMV for the City increases, the property tax rate decreases, and a property pays less in City property taxes. In other words, when the City grows and there more properties to pay taxes, they can all pay a little less. What does the data tell us? Over the past few years, the City the TMV, increasing about 33% since 2016. Generally, the City attributed this change to a strong housing market and several substantial redevelopment projects, including Cielo Apartment Homes and Northern Stacks, among others. Coupled with other changes in the local real estate market, the City was able to generate additional property tax revenues for the entire Fridley community. 7 4 Jufn!2/ General: Market Value, Code Enforcement, Bond Rating, Elections Nuisance Code 20172018201920202021 Enforcement Cases Cases per year7261,3691,6299921,041 Population per year27,79227,74227,74229,30029,590 Cases Per 1,000 Residents26.1249.3558.7233.8635.18 (# of cases/population) X 1,000 = Cases per 1,000 population, Source: City Planning Division & Population ASC Source Nuisance Code Enforcement Cases (Per 1,000 Residents) What is it? The City must preserve and protect the general welfare of its residents, including the abatement and prevention of public nuisances. Minnesota Statute § 561.01 states “Anything which is property, so as to interfere with the comfortable enjoyment of life or property, is a nuisance.” Why does it matter? Public nuisance ordinances are designed to preserve the peace, quality of life, morals and public health of a community. The Fridley City Code regulates a number of activities to prevent the creation of public nuisance, including: compost, refuse and yard waste storage; exterior storage; fences; housing and lawn maintenance; home occupations; noise; vehicle parking, sale and for families and businesses. What does the data tell us? Between 2017 - 2019, nuisance code enforcement cases per 1,000 residents and the expansion of the Fridley City Code to include back or rear yard storage in 2019. The cases dropped in 2020 due to a decrease in bank-owned properties and code enforcement visits due to the COVID-19 health pandemic. As a result, the City anticipates nuisance code enforcement case to increase in the next three years then return to more typical caseloads. 8 5 Jufn!2/ General: Market Value, Code Enforcement, Bond Rating, Elections Moody Bond Rating 20172018201920202021 Rating Aa2Aa2Aa2Aa2Aa2 Source: Moody’s Investor Services Bond Rating What is it? On occasion, the City issues debt, known as bonds, to support capital improvements (e.g., road institution lends money to the City and the City agrees to repay it with interest over many years. To verify the City’s ability to make those payments, it receives a bond rating from an independent agency, Moody’s Investor Services (Moody’s). The agency evaluates the City on several factors, Why does it matter? A bond rating may be thought of as a measure of risk or the likelihood that the City would not uses the bond rating to determine the cost to the City to borrow money – expressed as a higher or lower interest rate. The higher the bond rating, the lower the interest rate and vice versa. In some situations, a lower bond rating (higher interest rate) could cost hundreds of thousands of dollars in additional interest costs. What does the data tell us? The City maintains an Aa2, or the third highest, bond rating from Moody’s. The most redevelopment activities. In 2016, Moody’s Investor Services downgraded the City when it borrowed about $50,000,000 to construct the Fridley Civic Campus, noting the concentration of the property tax base, elevated debt load and lower than average household incomes for the community. 9 6 Jufn!2/ General: Market Value, Code Enforcement, Bond Rating, Elections Election Cycle 20162017201820192021 Accuracy of Post Not Selected Not Selected Not Selected Not Selected Not Selected Election Elected for Auditfor Auditfor Auditfor Auditfor Audit Accuracy of Post-Election Audit Results What is it? every state general election, Minnesota counties perform a post–election review of election results returned by the optical scan ballot counters used in the state. The review is a hand count of the ballots for each eligible election (US President, US Senator, US Representative and Governor) in the selected precincts compared with the results from the voting system used in those precincts.” For Anoka County (County), the County Canvassing Board must conduct a review of at least four precincts, or three percent of the total number of precincts in the County, whichever is greater. The precincts must be selected randomly. Why does it matter? Post–election audits allow the City, other levels of government and the public to verify election turn, the review helps the City improve internal processes and service delivery. What does the data tell us? Since 2016, the County has not selected the City for a post–election audit. To date, the City has not experienced any concerns or issues with election accuracy. : 7 Jufn!2/ General: Market Value, Code Enforcement, Bond Rating Fire & EMS Services: Rating, Response Times, Calls, Fire DataPublic Works: Streets, Water and Sanitary Sewer Police Services: Crime Rates, Clearance Rates and Response Times 20172018201920202021 Part I Crime 1,1181,1001,1481,3291,312 Part II Crime 1,4121,4611,1631,007842 Total 2,5302,5612,3112,3362,154 Source: City Police Division Part I and Part II Crime Rates What is it? include homicide, sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny-theft (shoplifting, pickpockets), motor vehicle theft, and arson. Part II crimes include other assaults, forgery and Why does it matter? promoting public safety. Partnering with the community through engagement, leadership and education, assists in keeping Part I and Part II crime rates low. What does the data tell us? The Police Division responds to thousands of calls for service each year. Generally, Fridley comparable surrounding communities. Part I Crimes remained steady in 2021. At the same time, less violent Part II Crimes decreased In Fridley, the Police Division saw a decline in fraud and forgery, which may be attributed to businesses taking stronger actions regarding accepting checks and credit cards. 21 8 Jufn!2/ General: Market Value, Code Enforcement, Bond Rating Fire & EMS Services: Rating, Response Times, Calls, Fire DataPublic Works: Streets, Water and Sanitary Sewer Police Services: Crime Rates, Clearance Rates and Response Times 20172018201920202021 Part I Clearance 25%26%28%24%32% Rate (%) Part II Clearance 50%52%52%42%50% Rate (%) Source: City Police Division Part I and Part II Clearance Rates What is it? Clearance rates measure the number of calls for service involving Part I and Part II crimes leading to various resolutions including warnings, citations or even arrests. The clearance rate is calculated by dividing the number of crimes that are cleared by the total number of crimes recorded. Why does it matter? The Police Division promotes the safety of the community and the feeling of security through the maintenance of law and order. This includes following through and applying legal penalties for violations. What does the data tell us? Evaluating the rate at which Part I and Part II crimes are cleared is often solving crimes. The decrease in 2020 is a result of a change in reporting systems this year. Previously, only the top three counts were included in 2020, all counts of the crimes are factored into the clearance rate. 22 9 Jufn!2/ General: Market Value, Code Enforcement, Bond Rating Fire & EMS Services: Rating, Response Times, Calls, Fire DataPublic Works: Streets, Water and Sanitary Sewer Police Services: Crime Rates, Clearance Rates and Response Times 20172018201920202021 Average Police 3:27 minutes3:12 minutes3:33 minutes3:53 minutes5:39 minutes Response Time Source: City Police Division Average Police Response Time What is it? The average police response time details calls for service through the Anoka County Dispatch indicated they arrived on scene. Why does it matter? The Police Division promotes the safety of the community and the feeling of security through the maintenance of law and order, crime prevention, timely response to requests for police service, and positive contacts with the public. What does the data tell us? Response times saw an increase in 2021. This may be due to new hires, training shifts, and operating at shift take a bit longer to respond to calls as they learn the layout of the city, and lower priority calls have had to wait longer than usual to be 23 10 Jufn!2/ General: Market Value, Code Enforcement, Bond Rating Fire & EMS Services: Rating, Response Times, Calls, Fire DataPublic Works: Streets, Water and Sanitary Sewer 20172018201920202021 Insurance Industry Rating of Class 3Class 3Class 3Class 3Class 3 Fire Services Source: City Fire Division Insurance Industry Rating of Fire Services (Rating/Every 5 Years) What is it? therefore it is less expensive to insure. Why does it matter? Why does the data tell us? The Fire Division has been able to maintain an ISO rating of Class 3 consistently over the years, 24 11 Jufn!2/ General: Market Value, Code Enforcement, Bond Rating Fire & EMS Services: Rating, Response Times, Calls, Fire DataPublic Works: Streets, Water and Sanitary Sewer 20172018*201920202021 Fire Calls per 1,000 128919411495 Population Fire Calls per 1,000 Population What is it? estimated at about 29,300. Based on the number of calls and total residents, there were 114 emergency responses per 1,000 Fridley residents. Why does it matter? The Fire Division projects an increase of more than 14 percent in emergency response calls over the next few years. This is based on the planned future residential housing and multi-story developments that lead to an estimated increase of 4,000 residents. The increase will determine Why does the data tell us? In 2018, the Fire Division reduced the amount of call types they responded to, which resulted in a decrease in calls per 1,000 residents. In 2020, the Fire Division began responding to medical-related calls again to assist the Police Division with the increase in calls during the pandemic. The Fire Division had more access to Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), which allowed them to better respond to illness-related calls for service. 25 12 Jufn!2/ General: Market Value, Code Enforcement, Bond Rating Fire & EMS Services: Rating, Response Times, Calls, Fire DataPublic Works: Streets, Water and Sanitary Sewer 20172018201920202021 Average Fire 5 minutes6 minutes5:47 minutes6:07 minutes6:07 minutes Response Time Source: City Fire Division Average Fire Response What is it? company within a 240-second travel time (four minutes) to 90 percent of the incidents.” That means every second counts, including call answering time (15 seconds), call processing time (60 from home is approximately 6-10 minutes. Why does it matter? communities. Therefore, it is crucial that local governments take these statistics seriously and What does the data tell us? The decrease in 2017 may be related to the switch in reporting softwares during that year. This could account for the way response times were being reported and incomparable data sets during that time. An increase in 2020 is related to a change 26 13 Jufn!2/ General: Market Value, Code Enforcement, Bond Rating Fire & EMS Services: Rating, Response Times, Calls, Fire DataPublic Works: Streets, Water and Sanitary Sewer 20172018201920202021 3545443940 resulting in investigation Source: Fire Division Number of Fires Resulting in Investigation and Financial Loss What is it? Why does it matter? local, state and national levels. What does the data tell us? The data represents a general and providing the same level of service, even as the city has grown in value and population with residential development. 27 14 Jufn!2/ General: Market Value, Code Enforcement, Bond Rating Public Works: Streets, Water and Sanitary Sewer 20172018201920202021 Average City Street Pavement Condition 7.086.926.56.86.8 Rating Source: Engineering Division Average City Street Pavement Condition Rating What is it? Public Works employees inspect City streets each year. Each street is given a rating on the Pavement Surface Evaluation and Rating (PASER) scale based on cracks, utility cuts and imperfections on the roadway. On the scale, 0 is the worst and 10 is the best. Data previous to Why does it matter? Regular roadway minor maintenance methods such as roadway and crack sealing and micro reconstructed entirely – which is much more expensive. Continued maintenance helps slow the aging of the pavement. However, once the pavement is 50-60 years old, too much minor pavement quality. What does the data tell us? The ratings are used to determine whether the City’s road maintenance and rehabilitation strategies are satisfactory, and if there is a change in pavement quality, which may indicate that a higher or lower investment in pavement preservation is required. a fully accurate comparison due to conversion of old ratings to the new PASER system. The rating remained 28 15 Jufn!2/ General: Market Value, Code Enforcement, Bond Rating Public Works: Streets, Water and Sanitary Sewer 20172018*201920202021 Expenditures for road rehabilitation per paved $150,803N/A$194,894$213,794$122,515 lane mile rehabilitated Source: Engineering Division *There was no rehabilitation project for 2018. Expenditures for Road Rehabilitation Per Paved Line Mile Rehabilitated What is it? This data is measuring the cost per mile for major reconstruction of roadways. The amount is given year. Why does it matter? cost of construction, and if improvements need to be made in the manner in which roads are construction and rehabilitation of roadways. What does the data tell us? The data tells the City how projects are, and displays rehabilitation project that year. In 2020, Council approved additional investments to street habilitation through reconstruction. In 2021, a combination of reconstruction and resurfacing was used, which reduced the average cost rehabilitation for the year. 29 16 Jufn!2/ General: Market Value, Code Enforcement, Bond Rating Public Works: Streets, Water and Sanitary Sewer 20172018*201920202021 Percentage of all jurisdiction lane miles 1.68%N/A0.51%3.15%2.6% rehabilitated in the year Source: Engineering Division Percentage of All Jurisdiction Lane Miles Rehabilitated in the Year What is it? rehabilitated every year. The goal is to average 2.5 percent per year. Why does it matter? If mileage is lower and streets are not being rehabilitated, the average age of the pavement gets older and the quality of streets are reduced. To provide for a stable budget and yet be cost- should be relatively consistent each year and meet the percentage goal on average. What does the data tell us? The data shows a decrease in the number of miles rehabilitated in 2019 compared to previous years. This is related to project delivery factors (how long it takes to receive permits, amount of funding, and coordination with other city/county/state projects quickly projects are completed. The City increased mileage and completed a backlog of previous years’ projects to exceed this goal during 2020. 2: 17 Jufn!2/ General: Market Value, Code Enforcement, Bond Rating Public Works: Streets, Water and Sanitary Sewer 20172018201920202021 Average Hours to Complete Road System 6.88 hours7.33 hours6.28 hours7.39 hours7.25 hours During Snow Event Source: Streets Division Average Hours to Complete Road System During Snow Event What is it? The amount of time, in hours, it takes for City plows to clear City streets. The Public Works department clears 87 miles of streets, 29 miles of trails, and 12 miles of sidewalks. In total, the City clears 180 street lane miles. Street lane miles account for both sides of the roadway being cleared. Why does it matter? Winter road safety is extremely important to the community. Average hours of a plow route keep businesses open and the ability to use recreation amenities. What does the data tell us? The data is an indicator of how are and the level of customer service the City is delivering to the residents. Data in a given year also indicates quantity and frequency of snow events, type of snow (light/heavy), ice conditions and timing and duration of snowfall. Data can vary year-over-year depending on how many snowfalls occurred and conditions at the time of snowfall. The increase in 2020 is related to the length of snowfalls, 31 18 Jufn!2/ General: Market Value, Code Enforcement, Bond Rating Public Works: Streets, Water and Sanitary Sewer 20172018201920202021 Operating Cost in Dollars per 1,000,000 $1,741$1,846$1,957$1,868$1,886 gallons of water Source: Water Division Operating Cost per 1,000,000 Gallons of Water Pumped/Produced What is it? The treatment, storage, and distribution operating costs for every million gallons of drinking water produced and delivered. The cost includes labor, supplies, maintenance, equipment and repairs, among other items. Why does it matter? costs of supplies, labor, and equipment. What does the data tell us? Year-over-year, the cost per gallon of water produced has been increasing slightly. While overall operating costs have remained stable, many of these production. Customers are conserving water, which leads to an increase in operating costs for a given volume of drinking water treated and delivered. As an example, even with less water going through a pump, its cost to maintain and eventually be replaced are dependent on its age rather than its use. Filters, storage tanks, distribution pipes and other components of the City’s water treatment and delivery system must be maintained regularly, regardless of use. 32 19 Jufn!2/ General: Market Value, Code Enforcement, Bond Rating Public Works: Streets, Water and Sanitary Sewer 20172018201920202021 Number of Sewer Blockages on City System 0.0360.0600.0480.0360.012 per 100 Connections Source: Sewer Division Number of Sewer Blockages on City System per 100 Connections What is it? The amount of times that Public Works responds to an emergency sewer main blockage per coordination of service cleaning by contractors. Why does it matter? for cleaning the sewer mains. The program reduces incidents of sewage backups that impact the City to have the Public Works Department check to verify whether there is a blockage in the main or sewer service. This may save the resident from having to pay a contractor to clean the service. What does the data tell us? Sanitary Sewer Division is cleaning mains on a regular basis. The City’s goal is to meet recommended cleaning of all mains within a two- has exceeded this goal for over a decade, cleaning the entire system every 1.5 years. Year-over-year data shows that blockages are very infrequent, and the continued 33 20 Jufn!2/ 34 21 Jufn!3/ AGENDA REPORT Meeting Date:May 9, 2022 Meeting Type:City Council Conference Meeting Submitted By:Joe Starks, Finance Director/City Treasurer Title 2023 Budget Outlook & Objectives Background This will be our initial discussion regarding the 2023 Budget outlook and objectives. Discussion 2023 BudgetDevelopment Focus on Fridley Strategic Alignment Vibrant Neighborhoods &PlacesCommunity Identity &Relationship Building X Financial Stability & Commercial ProsperityPublic Safety & Environmental Stewardship Organizational Excellence Attachments and Other Resources Budget Outlook & Objectives Presentation Vision Statement We believe Fridley will be a safe, vibrant, friendly and stable home for families and businesses. 35 Jufn!3/ OUTLOOK AND OBJECTIVES PLANNING 2023 BUDGET MAY 9, 2022 36 Jufn!3/ OVERVIEW •2021 General Fund Budget Performance & 2022 Budget •Budget Planning Projections for 2023 Budget •Long–Term Financial Plan •Economic Expectations •General Fund Revenue Assumptions •General Fund Expenditure Assumptions •Other Considerations •Next Steps and Other Considerations, Objectives, Guidance 37 2 Jufn!3/ GENERAL FUND 2021 BUDGETPERFORMANCE(U NAUDITED) & 2022 ADOPTEDBUDGET 38 3 Jufn!3/ GENERAL FUND, REVENUES •For Fiscal Year 2021, actual revenues exceeded the budget by approximately $972,360 39 4 Jufn!3/ GENERAL FUND, EXPENDITURES •For Fiscal Year 2021, actual expenditures were below budget by approximately $380,540 prior to the transfer out. 3: 5 Jufn!3/ GENERAL FUND, BALANCE HISTORY General Fund Balance History, 2003–2021 (Partially Unaudited) $16,000,000 $14,000,000 $12,000,000 $10,000,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 $2,000,000 $- Working Capital 35%Working Capital 50%Fund Balance 41 6 Jufn!3/ LONG–TERM FINANCIAL PLAN P LANNING 2023 B UDGET 42 7 Jufn!3/ LONG–TERM FINANCIAL PLAN •Consistent with the Vision Statement and Organizational Values of the City, the Planning 2023 Budget seeks to provide excellent public services at a fiscally responsible cost •Under this general goal, the City relies upon a series of guidelines to inform the development of the annual budget: •To stabilize ongoing revenues and expenditures, and eliminate unanticipated variances •To maintain structural balance and appropriate cash or fund balance levels •To increase accountability and transparency throughout the budget process •To make greater use of existing City resources •To ensure a financially competitive organization with exceptional service levels 43 8 Jufn!3/ LONG–TERM FINANCIAL PLAN •Through this process and using the budget guidelines, the City Council accomplished several long–term goals, including: •Ending the use of equipment certificates •Ending the use of the Closed Bond Fund •Creating the Community Investment Fund •Reducing the operating budget reliance on Local Government Aid •Stabilizing the Streets Capital Projects Fund •Responding to cost pressure on the budget proactively •Maintaining a strong overall financial position •Improving budget communications and transparency 44 9 Jufn!3/ ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS •State Forecast •The State’s projected budget surplus is currently $9.3 billion, which could grow into fiscal year 2024-2025 biennium, with a projected surplus of $15.287 billion •Inflation will likely add as much as $1.1 billion to state expenditures during that timeframe •Federal Forecast •Projected 5-7 Federal Funds Rate increases (200 –300bp or 2 to 3 percentage points) by end of 2022, going into 2023 •Intended to slow inflation and moderate consumer price increases •Cost of borrowing more expensive •Increased interest earnings on City funds •Several factors continue to cause uncertainty in economic forecasts, including: •Fluctuations in Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID–19) pandemic •Shifts in Federal fiscal, monetary and trade policies •Changes in business and consumer habits •Negotiations on State budget appropriations and tax policies •Inflation 45 10 Jufn!3/ ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS, INFLATION •Inflation currently at highest level since early 1980s •5-7 rate increases by Federal Reserve by end of year going into 2023 •Rate increases intended to lower inflation and moderate consumer price increases •Optimism •Core inflation index increased at the slowest pace in six months. •Largest driver of growth in core inflation over past year, used car prices, decreased 3.8% from February to March. 46 11 Jufn!3/ INFLATIONARY FORECAST, CONTINUED 47 12 Jufn!3/ ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS 48 13 Jufn!3/ ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS, CONTINUED 49 14 Jufn!3/ AMERICAN RESCUE PLAN ACT (ARPA) FUNDS •July 2021: City received $1,472,232 initial distribution of ARPA funds •November 2021: City received $48,212 supplemental distribution of ARPA funds •July 2022: City will receive final distribution of $1,520,444 •Initial Plan to use funds on utility infrastructure projects •City approved resolution to treat funds as replacement of lost revenue (reporting purposes) •Gives the City flexibility should there be any unspent funds or plans change 4: 15 Jufn!3/ LOCAL GOVERNMENT AID Local Government Aid Allocation, 2018–2026F $2,000,000 $1,800,000 $1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 $200,000 $- 201820192020202120222023F2024F2025F2026F General Fund Capital Project Funds 51 16 Jufn!3/ GENERAL FUND EXPENDITURES •Personnel Services •New Labor Agreements Approved in 2022 •Fire Relief •Police (Patrol & Sergeants) •Health Insurance Premiums •Worker’s Compensation Insurance Premiums •Inflationary Pressures •Reallocation of current resources based on history and need •Budget adjusted to better reflect actual expenditures 52 17 Jufn!3/ OTHER BUDGET/LEVY CONSIDERATIONS •Issuance of 2022 GO Tax Abatement Bonds for Park System Improvement Plan •Property tax impact beginning in 2023 •Springbrook Nature Center •Liquor Store sales at pre-pandemic levels 53 18 Jufn!3/ PROPERTY TAX LEVY P LANNING 2023 B UDGET 54 19 Jufn!3/ PROPERTY TAX LEVY, NET TAX CAPACITY Net Tax Capacity by Classification 2% 15% •Average Residential Residential Homestead 45% Homestead, $275,100 1% Commercial/Industrial o Current MLS $289,600 Railroad Operations •Median Residential Residential, Non- Homestead: $268,300 Homestead o Current MLS $290,000 Personal Property 37% Property Taxes Payable for 2022 55 20 Jufn!3/ PROPERTY TAX LEVY, DETAIL Property Tax Levy, 2011–2022 $20,000,000 $18,000,000 $16,000,000 $14,000,000 $12,000,000 $10,000,000 $8,000,000 $6,000,000 $4,000,000 $2,000,000 $0 3.85%1.91%5.13%2.30%1.94%3.97%15.75%4.86%4.64%3.97%4.85%2.97% 201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022 General FundCapital EquipmentI.T. Capital Projects FundSpringbrook Nature CenterDebt Service 56 21 Jufn!3/ PROPERTY TAX LEVY, COMPARISON Overall Property Tax Levy, Peer Cities 160.00% 140.00% 120.00% 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% RichfieldMaplewoodGoldenFridleyNewSavageOakdaleInver GroveCoon Rapids BrooklynColumbia CenterHeightsValleyBrightonHeights CountyCitySchool DistrictSpecial District Source: Minnesota Department of Revenue, 2021 Property Tax Report (thru the League of Minnesota Cities) 57 22 Jufn!3/ NEXT STEPS AND OTHER CONSIDERATIONS P LANNING 2023 B UDGET 58 23 Jufn!3/ PROPOSED 2023 BUDGET CALENDAR May 9Discuss outlooks and objectives with the City Council June 17Proposed 2023–2027 CIP released to City Council June 27Discuss Proposed 2023–2027 CIP with City Council June 30Proposed 2023–2027 CIP submitted to Anoka County for comment August 8Department of Revenue notifies the City of final State Aid amounts August 22Discuss Property Tax Levy scenarios with City Council September 1Department of Revenue notifies City of any property tax levy limits September 12Discuss Proposed 2023 Budget and Property Tax Levy with City Council September 26Adopt the Proposed 2023 Budget and Property Tax Levy September 26Adopt Final Housing and Redevelopment Authority Property Tax Levy 59 24 Jufn!3/ CITY COUNCIL CONSIDERATIONS •Based on the current economic conditions and the needs of the organization, what changes, if any, should the City consider in budget development process? •Are there any other budget questions or priorities the City Council would like to consider? 5: 25 Jufn!3/ THANK YOU! QUESTIONS? 61 26